Understanding Pandemics: A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Modelling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southern Africa

Abstract

The (re-) emergence of global health crises, such as COVID-19, has highlighted the importance of epidemiological modelling. The aim of this review paper was to give an overview of the epidemiological models which inform policy and action that support the planning and COVID-19 response efforts in Southern Africa. Fourteen relevant records were reviewed. The process of identification followed the PRISMA approach. The review showed a diversity of models used, differing in type, form, use and scope. No single model can explain all the aspects of the disease; each should be interpreted within the context of its assumptions. While modelling has informed policy, it has occasionally been misused to justify decisions. Despite this, modelling has been vital in fighting against COVID-19. Also, in spite of challenges in forecasting future pandemics, predictive modelling provides a precautionary guide. Therefore, there is a need to increase infectious disease modelling literacy among users.